College Football, Week 3 in Review

--USC clearly established themselves as the deepest, most athletic, and team to beat this season. And Ohio State is not as bad as they looked.

In my opinion, the differences between USC and Ohio State are quarterback play and big play ability. That's it. Ohio State has a defense that includes at least three first round draft picks (DB Malcolm Jenkins, LB's Marcus Freeman and James Lauranitis), but none of them have playmaker skills they way USC's defenders do. USC has game-changing players at each of the three defensive tiers (particularly on the line), as in players who can make tackles for loss, force fumbles, and come up with interceptions. A similar story could be told on the other side of the ball. With Beanie Wells out, USC had four running backs better and more athletic than anyone Ohio State put out there. Damien Williams emerged as a deep threat at receiver. In fact, I would venture a guess that the only USC-level athletes Ohio State has are Wells and Terrelle Pryor. Wells, of course, sat out with injury, and Pryor was inexplicably held out for too many plays. He was their only consistently effective player.

Despite the lopsided score, the game was actually fairly even, at least over the first half. Ohio State had statistical advantages in every category except for scoring. Both had one turnover; Ohio State dominated time of possesion, and had more total offense; they just didn't have the athletes to finish off their drives. Terrelle Pryor also had a very good showing, establishing himself as capable of leading a BCS caliber team. Seeing his outstanding play, and seeing USC chase Boeckman around in the second half, makes me wonder if there's a correlation between OSU's big game flops and Boeckman's shaky QB play. If the Buckeyes can get some sort of consistent quarterback play (perhaps starting Pryor?), I still see them as a top 10 team who perhaps won't lose again all season.

--The only other top team that proved themself unworthy of National Championship discussion was Auburn. Both Auburn and Georgia engaged in hard-fought, defensive battles with lesser SEC foes. But Georgia's 14-7 win is somewhat condonable, because it came against South Carolina, who has a vastly underrated defense. Even the best teams have these close-fought games with good but not elite teams. So long as this is not a regular occurance, I lost not confidence in Georgia (I was actually impressed with their defense), and I fully expect them to dominate Championship pretender Arizona State next week. Auburn, on the other hand, won 3-2 against Mississippi State. If you can't score but 3 points against Mississippi State, you aren't winning much of anything.

-Despite USC's dominance, I still have Florida pegged as my National Champions. Florida has nearly as many weapons as USC, a developing defense, and an O-Line that will both improve over the course of the year. I fully expect them to find a consistent running threat, too. While USC is better overall, the Gators have a quarterback who is not only the best player in the country, but has National Championship experience and big-game poise unmatched by USC slinger Mark Sanchez. Were these two teams to meet in the championship, I fully expect the difference in QB play to be the deciding factor in this hypothetical game.

Here is how I would rank the championship contenders, with their projected final regular season records:

1) Florida. Even if they lose one game, they have an advantage over other contenders because of the schedule strength that goes hand-in-hand with playing in the SEC. They probably will lose one regular season game, but so will everyone else. Nobody is capable of beating them in the SEC West, so a conference championship seems very tangible. PROJECTED FINISH: 11-1.
2) USC. When Sanchez stumbles for the first time, the opposing team will take advantage. Oregon State? Cal? at Stanford? at UCLA (who will be healthy by then)? They will lose somewhere. 11-1
3) Missouri. That offense is legit. Both Chase Daniels and Jeremy Macklin are Heisman candidates, and while the defense isn't suffocating, it has its fair share of playmakers (such as William Moore at safety). Is this team better than Kansas? Yes. Oklahoma? I don't know. Texas? Probably, but I haven't seen Texas play. Until then I can't really project a record for the Tigers.
4) Oklahoma*. This comes with an asterisk because while they have a superb offense, I haven't really seen their defense. I'm sure it's like it has been in years past- bend, but don't break- meaning someone (Texas? Missouri? Texas Tech?) will break them. 11-1
5) Georgia. Injuries have hurt them, especially on the offensive line, but historically the team gets better as the season moves on. Unfortunately, they won't be better than Florida when they play. 10-2
6) LSU. They have a shot, even in a reloading year, and they will win the SEC West and get to the SEC championship and probably a BCS bowl. They could lose to Florida twice though. 10-2
7) Texas. I don't think they are the 7th best team, but if they can win big games they have a better chance than many. I don't think they'll beat Oklahoma. 10-2
8) Wisconsin. Like Texas, it's about scheduling. If they can get by Penn State and Ohio State, they could finish undefeated, because they are not very susceptible to upsets. And if a team beats Penn State and Ohio State and finishes undefeated, you can't shut them out of the National Championship. Ohio State will beat them, though. 11-1.

Also, there is a very good chance both BYU and Utah will probably be undefeated headed into their matchup. I haven't formulated an opinion about who will win this game, but if the winner is undefeated there will be some debate over their national championship participation.

--I'm a pretty big believer in the Stewart Mandel cyclical conference strength theory. Over the past two years, it's indisputable that the SEC and Big 12 have been the two strongest conferences (so far this year, they account for more than half of the top 25. Wow). In two years however, look out for the ACC. I fully expect Miami to be a top 10 team. Duke, North Carolina, Maryland, Georgia Tech, and Florida State will all improve. Wake Forest, Clemson and Boston College won't fall off. Maybe UVa and Tech will, and NC State will be a bottom feeder still. But overall, it will be a very strong conference, as the Big 12 is now. On the flipside, I can't see Texas Tech, Kansas, or Missouri as top 15 teams two years from now. And in the Pac 10, the gap between USC and the field is widening every year. This is what I foresee the top 15 looking like in two years:

1) USC
2) Ohio State
3) Georgia
4) LSU
5) Oklahoma
6) Miami
7) Alabama
8) Texas
9) Wisconsin
10) Notre Dame
11) Florida
12) Florida State
13) Ole Miss
14) Boise State
15) South Florida

Opinions?